For crude oil markets, last year started on a truly apocalyptic note and then got worse. As early as the spring, though, a distinct recovery could be seen swifter and more buoyant than almost anyone would have predicted, as global economies emerged from recession. But severe economic downturn resulted in an imbalance in the market marked by weak demand, high stocks, floating storage, permanent contango and spare capacity. Now, as we enjoy a recovery to a point what lasting impact can we anticipate?
What is the likely demand picture going forward, particularly outside the OECD not just China, notably, but also the Middle East, a region experiencing sustained growth? Will large inventories and spare capacity suddenly become supply shortage in 2010? Is the current stream of crude grades in step with refineries needs and a changing product mix? And what long-term structural changes will the recession and apparent recovery leave behind?
Then, prices shot up from spring 2009 s lows though stopping at not much more than half 2008 s all-time highs but have stabilised since then. How long will producers declare themselves comfortable in the range of $70 to $80/barrel? And will those price levels prove adequate to fuel investment and development? What are the factors keeping prices in that range and what would see them break out? Further, while largely rangebound for months on end, the market is still subject to violent swings within that range is such volatility here to stay. And will the correlation of crude oil prices with equities and currency movements be sustained or have we already seen it broken?
As in previous years, Platts 3rd
3rd Annual Crude Oil Markets 2010 conference will attract the senior members of the oil community and will continue to provide a comprehensive overview of the global crude oil markets, where they are and where they are heading.
Key areas to be explored: - Demand/supply outlook post recession
- Pricing dynamics Greater cohesion or growing disconnects?
- Changing geographic trade flows
- Looking ahead Where next for crude markets?
- The financial crisis and its impact on upstream investment
- Crude quality outlook The global sweet/sour balance
